Predicted Super Bowl Ads Winners And Losers

Here’s what historical data tell us about who’s likely to score – or not – with their sizable investments on February 2.

WINNERS
Celebrities are a Super Bowl ad staple. But if the personality has no connection with the brand and the ad doesn’t quickly create a meaningful link, the celebrity thunder thief steals the show but fails to sell the brand.

H&M
Thanks in part to a 2012 Super Bowl ad launching the David Beckham Bodywear line, Beckham is firmly linked to H&M. That year, data showed the retailer outperformed most other commercials in generating tangible gains in consumer intention. This year, viewers who own certain Samsung smart TVs will be able to purchase directly from the ad, thanks to Delivery Agent’s technology. This will undoubtedly generate great publicity for IPO-bound Delivery Agent, but H&M needs to sell apparel. The data suggest that, as long as they retain focus on their marketing objectives, H&M’s ad will again build sales and store traffic, and position the brand favorably.

Budweiser
Last year, with a highly engaging commercial titled “Brotherhood,” Budweiser successfully built favorability among adult game viewers. The brand should score again this year with a similar approach, this time focusing on the relationship between a puppy and one of Budweiser’s iconic Clydesdales.

Butterfinger
Data show that a Super Bowl ad buy, while expensive, is one of the best places to generate broad-based awareness for a new product. If Butterfinger can stoke hunger for their new Peanut Butter Cups, not getting carried away with the ad’s innuendo-laden gag about peanuts and chocolate in couples’ therapy, the safe prediction is that they will be among the big winners in 2014.

LOSERS

Cheerios
This brand, new to the Super Bowl, faces the same problem that plagues many known brands that invest in the big game: Unless you’ve got Clydesdales (or maybe puppies) on your team, it’s difficult for established brands to move the needle in brand attitudes or behaviors with a single spot – even a controversial or entertaining one.

Oikos
In 2012, John Stamos stole the show from Dannon Oikos’ yogurt. The result: very low brand awareness and no positive impact on the brand. They sat out the 2013 Super Bowl. The teaser for 2014’s ad, featuring a “Full House” mini-reunion, suggests that celebrities will be even more distracting from the product this year.

Read more about the rest of the lineup at Forbes